East Tennessee State Bucs 58, Mercer Bears 51
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-26 · Winner: East Tennessee State Bucs
East Tennessee State Bucs defeated Mercer Bears 58–51 on 2026-02-26 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at Q2 0:00 swung win probability 41% → 9%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Mercer Bears lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tennessee State Bucs | 18 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 58 |
| Mercer Bears | 19 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 51 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at Q2 0:00 swung win probability 41% → 9%.
Why Mercer Bears lost
- Lost Q2 7-20 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q2 0:00 (win probability 41% → 9% for the home side).
- Shot 36.2% eFG vs a 42.6% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Tennessee State Bucs | 8–0 | Q2 0:00 | 41% → 9% |
| Mercer Bears | 8–0 | Q4 9:19 | 8% → 41% |