Merrimack Warriors 67, Manhattan Jaspers 82
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-21 · Winner: Manhattan Jaspers
Manhattan Jaspers defeated Merrimack Warriors 82–67 on 2026-02-21 in NCAA Women's play, a 15-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q4 6:31 swung win probability 23% → 96%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Merrimack Warriors lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack Warriors | 26 | 13 | 19 | 9 | 67 |
| Manhattan Jaspers | 22 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 82 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q4 6:31 swung win probability 23% → 96%.
Why Merrimack Warriors lost
- Lost Q4 9-29 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at Q4 0:34 (win probability 78% → 100% for the home side).
- Outscored 24-12 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack Warriors | 8–0 | Q1 3:35 | 84% → 57% |
| Manhattan Jaspers | 8–0 | Q3 0:46 | 5% → 36% |
| Manhattan Jaspers | 12–0 | Q4 6:31 | 23% → 96% |
| Manhattan Jaspers | 13–0 | Q4 0:34 | 78% → 100% |