Ball State Cardinals 78, Toledo Rockets 71
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-07 · Winner: Ball State Cardinals
Ball State Cardinals defeated Toledo Rockets 78–71 on 2026-03-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 12-0 road team run ending at Q2 2:00 swung win probability 60% → 11%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Toledo Rockets lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals | 16 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 78 |
| Toledo Rockets | 18 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 71 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 road team run ending at Q2 2:00 swung win probability 60% → 11%.
Why Toledo Rockets lost
- Lost Q2 8-19 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q2 2:00 (win probability 60% → 11% for the home side).
- Shot 40.9% eFG vs a 46.9% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals | 8–0 | Q1 6:12 | 66% → 36% |
| Ball State Cardinals | 12–0 | Q2 2:00 | 60% → 11% |