Toledo Rockets 56, Western Michigan Broncos 49
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-04 · Winner: Toledo Rockets
Toledo Rockets defeated Western Michigan Broncos 56–49 on 2026-03-04 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 17-0 home team run ending at Q3 6:42 swung win probability 3% → 47%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Western Michigan Broncos lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 16 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 56 |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 6 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 49 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 17-0 home team run ending at Q3 6:42 swung win probability 3% → 47%.
Why Western Michigan Broncos lost
- Lost Q1 6-16 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 6:29 (win probability 22% → 3% for the home side).
- Outscored 14-3 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 9–0 | Q2 6:29 | 22% → 3% |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 17–0 | Q3 6:42 | 3% → 47% |