Toledo Rockets 68, Ball State Cardinals 72
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-07 · Winner: Ball State Cardinals
Ball State Cardinals defeated Toledo Rockets 72–68 on 2026-01-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q3 8:28 swung win probability 64% → 98%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Toledo Rockets lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 15 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 68 |
| Ball State Cardinals | 14 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 72 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q3 8:28 swung win probability 64% → 98%.
Why Toledo Rockets lost
- Lost Q2 11-21 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q3 8:28 (win probability 64% → 98% for the home side).
- Shot 40.6% eFG vs a 46.9% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals | 8–0 | Q2 9:44 | 37% → 69% |
| Ball State Cardinals | 12–0 | Q3 8:28 | 64% → 98% |
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | Q3 6:13 | 98% → 82% |
| Ball State Cardinals | 9–0 | Q4 9:18 | 76% → 99% |