Buffalo Bulls 46, Toledo Rockets 79
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-31 · Winner: Toledo Rockets
Toledo Rockets defeated Buffalo Bulls 79–46 on 2025-12-31 in NCAA Women's play, a 33-point result. A 19-0 home team run ending at Q2 2:57 swung win probability 76% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Buffalo Bulls lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bulls | 13 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 46 |
| Toledo Rockets | 19 | 22 | 26 | 12 | 79 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 19-0 home team run ending at Q2 2:57 swung win probability 76% → 100%.
Why Buffalo Bulls lost
- Lost Q2 6-22 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 19-0 run ending at Q2 2:57 (win probability 76% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 31.4% eFG vs a 40.8% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 17-2 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | Q1 2:31 | 65% → 88% |
| Toledo Rockets | 19–0 | Q2 2:57 | 76% → 100% |
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | Q3 5:18 | 100% → 100% |