Bowling Green Falcons 49, Toledo Rockets 59
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-31 · Winner: Toledo Rockets
Toledo Rockets defeated Bowling Green Falcons 59–49 on 2026-01-31 in NCAA Women's play, a 10-point result. A 17-0 road team run ending at Q2 4:41 swung win probability 98% → 64%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Bowling Green Falcons lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green Falcons | 9 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 49 |
| Toledo Rockets | 23 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 59 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 17-0 road team run ending at Q2 4:41 swung win probability 98% → 64%.
Why Bowling Green Falcons lost
- Lost Q1 9-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q1 1:42 (win probability 84% → 98% for the home side).
- Shot 31.8% eFG vs a 45.1% season average - a cold night.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 19-7.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 10–0 | Q1 4:48 | 69% → 93% |
| Toledo Rockets | 11–0 | Q1 1:42 | 84% → 98% |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 17–0 | Q2 4:41 | 98% → 64% |