Cal Poly Mustangs 39, UC Irvine Anteaters 84
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-12 · Winner: UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Irvine Anteaters defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 84–39 on 2026-02-12 in NCAA Women's play, a 45-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at Q2 2:24 swung win probability 80% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 15 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 39 |
| UC Irvine Anteaters | 19 | 25 | 28 | 12 | 84 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at Q2 2:24 swung win probability 80% → 100%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 9-28 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 17-0 run ending at Q3 3:55 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 33.7% eFG vs a 41.7% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 21-11.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 17-6.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine Anteaters | 14–0 | Q2 2:24 | 80% → 100% |
| UC Irvine Anteaters | 17–0 | Q3 3:55 | 99% → 100% |
| UC Irvine Anteaters | 9–0 | Q3 1:30 | 100% → 100% |