Cal Poly Mustangs 50, Cal State Northridge Matadors 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-05 · Winner: Cal State Northridge Matadors
Cal State Northridge Matadors defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 65–50 on 2026-02-05 in NCAA Women's play, a 15-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q3 0:32 swung win probability 25% → 76%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 12 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 50 |
| Cal State Northridge Matadors | 10 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q3 0:32 swung win probability 25% → 76%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q4 9-25 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 15-0 run ending at Q3 2:22 (win probability 1% → 37% for the home side).
- Shot 37.3% eFG vs a 41.7% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 32-24.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | Q2 1:03 | 41% → 10% |
| Cal State Northridge Matadors | 15–0 | Q3 2:22 | 1% → 37% |
| Cal State Northridge Matadors | 8–0 | Q3 0:32 | 25% → 76% |
| Cal State Northridge Matadors | 10–0 | Q4 0:59 | 97% → 100% |