Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners 62, Cal Poly Mustangs 58
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-29 · Winner: Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 62–58 on 2026-01-29 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at Q1 2:15 swung win probability 51% → 92%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | 7 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 62 |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 24 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 58 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at Q1 2:15 swung win probability 51% → 92%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q2 9-19 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q2 1:44 (win probability 97% → 84% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 27-14.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 14–0 | Q1 2:15 | 51% → 92% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | Q1 0:12 | 88% → 98% |
| Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | 8–0 | Q2 1:44 | 97% → 84% |