Cal Poly Mustangs 46, Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine 86
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-15 · Winner: Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine
Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 86–46 on 2026-01-15 in NCAA Women's play, a 40-point result. A 17-0 home team run ending at Q1 4:25 swung win probability 55% → 96%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 6 | 18 | 8 | 14 | 46 |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | 28 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 17-0 home team run ending at Q1 4:25 swung win probability 55% → 96%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q1 6-28 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 17-0 run ending at Q1 4:25 (win probability 55% → 96% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 20-5.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 12-5.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | 17–0 | Q1 4:25 | 55% → 96% |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | 11–0 | Q3 7:03 | 100% → 100% |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | 10–0 | Q4 5:13 | 100% → 100% |