Cal Poly Mustangs 61, UC Davis Aggies 87
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-10 · Winner: UC Davis Aggies
UC Davis Aggies defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 87–61 on 2026-01-10 in NCAA Women's play, a 26-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at Q1 1:20 swung win probability 90% → 69%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 11 | 11 | 24 | 15 | 61 |
| UC Davis Aggies | 18 | 21 | 30 | 18 | 87 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at Q1 1:20 swung win probability 90% → 69%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q2 11-21 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at Q2 5:12 (win probability 82% → 99% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 21-15.
- Outscored 28-13 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 14-7.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | Q1 1:20 | 90% → 69% |
| UC Davis Aggies | 13–0 | Q2 5:12 | 82% → 99% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | Q3 4:23 | 100% → 99% |