Cal Poly Mustangs 54, UC San Diego Tritons 75
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-01 · Winner: UC San Diego Tritons
UC San Diego Tritons defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 75–54 on 2026-01-01 in NCAA Women's play, a 21-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q3 8:44 swung win probability 92% → 99%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 7 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 54 |
| UC San Diego Tritons | 14 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 75 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q3 8:44 swung win probability 92% → 99%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 14-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q3 0:06 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 16-12.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego Tritons | 8–0 | Q3 8:44 | 92% → 99% |
| UC San Diego Tritons | 10–0 | Q3 0:06 | 99% → 100% |