Incarnate Word Cardinals 64, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 70
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-29 · Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders defeated Incarnate Word Cardinals 70–64 on 2026-01-29 in NCAA Women's play, a 6-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 5:26 swung win probability 22% → 87%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Incarnate Word Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 11 | 13 | 26 | 14 | 64 |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | 17 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 70 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 5:26 swung win probability 22% → 87%.
Why Incarnate Word Cardinals lost
- Lost Q4 14-25 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q3 0:55 (win probability 7% → 43% for the home side).
- Shot 37.3% eFG vs a 46.4% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 8–0 | Q3 7:40 | 68% → 27% |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | 9–0 | Q3 0:55 | 7% → 43% |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | 9–0 | Q4 5:26 | 22% → 87% |