Arkansas State Red Wolves 64, Troy Trojans 86
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-10 · Winner: Troy Trojans
Troy Trojans defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 86–64 on 2026-01-10 in NCAA Women's play, a 22-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q3 2:36 swung win probability 100% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 20 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 64 |
| Troy Trojans | 27 | 17 | 24 | 18 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q3 2:36 swung win probability 100% → 100%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Lost Q2 8-17 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q3 2:36 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 36.9% eFG vs a 46.3% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 17-5 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 12–0 | Q3 2:36 | 100% → 100% |