Texas State Bobcats 49, Troy Trojans 84
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-07 · Winner: Troy Trojans
Troy Trojans defeated Texas State Bobcats 84–49 on 2026-01-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 35-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q3 4:42 swung win probability 99% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Texas State Bobcats lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State Bobcats | 17 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 49 |
| Troy Trojans | 21 | 17 | 30 | 16 | 84 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q3 4:42 swung win probability 99% → 100%.
Why Texas State Bobcats lost
- Lost Q3 10-30 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q3 4:42 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 30.7% eFG vs a 43.6% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 21-6 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 26-12.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 12–0 | Q3 4:42 | 99% → 100% |