South Alabama Jaguars 64, Texas State Bobcats 59
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-21 · Winner: South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars defeated Texas State Bobcats 64–59 on 2026-02-21 in NCAA Women's play, a 5-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q2 8:54 swung win probability 41% → 79%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Texas State Bobcats lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 7 | 19 | 23 | 15 | 64 |
| Texas State Bobcats | 7 | 16 | 11 | 25 | 59 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q2 8:54 swung win probability 41% → 79%.
Why Texas State Bobcats lost
- Lost Q3 11-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q2 2:05 (win probability 68% → 31% for the home side).
- Shot 38.7% eFG vs a 43.6% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State Bobcats | 10–0 | Q2 8:54 | 41% → 79% |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 8–0 | Q2 2:05 | 68% → 31% |
| Texas State Bobcats | 9–0 | Q4 0:36 | 0% → 1% |