Texas State Bobcats 69, South Alabama Jaguars 63
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-12 · Winner: Texas State Bobcats
Texas State Bobcats defeated South Alabama Jaguars 69–63 on 2026-02-12 in NCAA Women's play, a 6-point result. A 10-0 road team run ending at Q4 0:05 swung win probability 93% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why South Alabama Jaguars lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State Bobcats | 14 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 69 |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 23 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 63 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 road team run ending at Q4 0:05 swung win probability 93% → 0%.
Why South Alabama Jaguars lost
- Lost Q4 12-20 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q2 4:25 (win probability 95% → 68% for the home side).
- Shot 42.6% eFG vs a 46.7% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 9–0 | Q1 6:29 | 69% → 91% |
| Texas State Bobcats | 11–0 | Q2 4:25 | 95% → 68% |
| Texas State Bobcats | 8–0 | Q4 4:12 | 96% → 54% |
| Texas State Bobcats | 10–0 | Q4 0:05 | 93% → 0% |