Texas State Bobcats 53, Arkansas State Red Wolves 87
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-27 · Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State Red Wolves defeated Texas State Bobcats 87–53 on 2026-02-27 in NCAA Women's play, a 34-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 7:25 swung win probability 69% → 89%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Texas State Bobcats lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State Bobcats | 9 | 14 | 8 | 22 | 53 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 26 | 22 | 24 | 15 | 87 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 7:25 swung win probability 69% → 89%.
Why Texas State Bobcats lost
- Lost Q1 9-26 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at Q3 1:04 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 32.4% eFG vs a 43.6% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 26-14.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 21-15.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 8–0 | Q1 7:25 | 69% → 89% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 14–0 | Q3 1:04 | 100% → 100% |
| Texas State Bobcats | 10–0 | Q4 0:20 | 100% → 100% |