South Alabama Jaguars 61, Arkansas State Red Wolves 74
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-20 · Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State Red Wolves defeated South Alabama Jaguars 74–61 on 2025-12-20 in NCAA Women's play, a 13-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q2 8:37 swung win probability 53% → 87%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why South Alabama Jaguars lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 12 | 10 | 17 | 22 | 61 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 16 | 13 | 26 | 19 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q2 8:37 swung win probability 53% → 87%.
Why South Alabama Jaguars lost
- Lost Q3 17-26 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q3 3:27 (win probability 85% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 42.5% eFG vs a 46.7% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 29-25.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 24-15.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 10–0 | Q2 8:37 | 53% → 87% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 11–0 | Q3 3:27 | 85% → 100% |