UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 80, Incarnate Word Cardinals 70
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-31 · Winner: UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros defeated Incarnate Word Cardinals 80–70 on 2026-01-31 in NCAA Women's play, a 10-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at OT 3:12 swung win probability 81% → 3%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Incarnate Word Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 14 | 20 | 10 | 19 | 17 | 80 |
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 13 | 15 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 70 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at OT 3:12 swung win probability 81% → 3%.
Why Incarnate Word Cardinals lost
- Lost Q5 7-17 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q2 3:59 (win probability 69% → 28% for the home side).
- Shot 39.5% eFG vs a 46.4% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 21-6 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 10–0 | Q2 3:59 | 69% → 28% |
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 8–0 | Q2 1:58 | 28% → 60% |
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 9–0 | Q3 0:05 | 48% → 89% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 10–0 | Q4 0:31 | 99% → 73% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 9–0 | OT 3:12 | 81% → 3% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 9–0 | OT 0:07 | 7% → 0% |