California Baptist Lancers 76, Abilene Christian Wildcats 69
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-05 · Winner: California Baptist Lancers
California Baptist Lancers defeated Abilene Christian Wildcats 76–69 on 2026-03-05 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 10-0 road team run ending at OT 0:10 swung win probability 68% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Abilene Christian Wildcats lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist Lancers | 14 | 19 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 76 |
| Abilene Christian Wildcats | 19 | 9 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 69 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 road team run ending at OT 0:10 swung win probability 68% → 0%.
Why Abilene Christian Wildcats lost
- Lost Q2 9-19 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q2 0:07 (win probability 76% → 29% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 15-8.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Christian Wildcats | 10–0 | Q1 4:17 | 42% → 75% |
| California Baptist Lancers | 11–0 | Q2 0:07 | 76% → 29% |
| Abilene Christian Wildcats | 11–0 | Q3 7:33 | 29% → 76% |
| California Baptist Lancers | 8–0 | Q3 3:46 | 77% → 38% |
| California Baptist Lancers | 10–0 | OT 0:10 | 68% → 0% |