California Baptist Lancers 77, Tarleton State Texans 67
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-05 · Winner: California Baptist Lancers
California Baptist Lancers defeated Tarleton State Texans 77–67 on 2026-02-05 in NCAA Women's play, a 10-point result. A 12-0 road team run ending at Q4 0:37 swung win probability 74% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Tarleton State Texans lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist Lancers | 21 | 23 | 14 | 19 | 77 |
| Tarleton State Texans | 17 | 15 | 21 | 14 | 67 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 road team run ending at Q4 0:37 swung win probability 74% → 0%.
Why Tarleton State Texans lost
- Lost Q2 15-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q4 0:37 (win probability 74% → 0% for the home side).
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist Lancers | 9–0 | Q1 2:56 | 62% → 27% |
| California Baptist Lancers | 12–0 | Q4 0:37 | 74% → 0% |