UT Arlington Mavericks 37, Tarleton State Texans 51
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-21 · Winner: Tarleton State Texans
Tarleton State Texans defeated UT Arlington Mavericks 51–37 on 2026-01-21 in NCAA Women's play, a 14-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q3 7:21 swung win probability 36% → 78%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why UT Arlington Mavericks lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Arlington Mavericks | 13 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 37 |
| Tarleton State Texans | 14 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 51 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q3 7:21 swung win probability 36% → 78%.
Why UT Arlington Mavericks lost
- Lost Q4 3-17 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q3 7:21 (win probability 36% → 78% for the home side).
- Shot 24.5% eFG vs a 42.9% season average - a cold night.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 15-9.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton State Texans | 9–0 | Q3 7:21 | 36% → 78% |
| UT Arlington Mavericks | 8–0 | Q3 0:25 | 93% → 56% |
| Tarleton State Texans | 8–0 | Q4 1:27 | 96% → 100% |