Tarleton State Texans 68, California Baptist Lancers 80
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: California Baptist Lancers
California Baptist Lancers defeated Tarleton State Texans 80–68 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Women's play, a 12-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 3:41 swung win probability 58% → 84%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Tarleton State Texans lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton State Texans | 12 | 12 | 19 | 25 | 68 |
| California Baptist Lancers | 23 | 26 | 13 | 18 | 80 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 3:41 swung win probability 58% → 84%.
Why Tarleton State Texans lost
- Lost Q2 12-26 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q1 3:41 (win probability 58% → 84% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist Lancers | 8–0 | Q1 3:41 | 58% → 84% |
| California Baptist Lancers | 8–0 | Q2 7:44 | 89% → 98% |