Missouri State Lady Bears 75, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 86
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-07 · Winner: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders defeated Missouri State Lady Bears 86–75 on 2026-03-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 11-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 3:36 swung win probability 69% → 92%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Missouri State Lady Bears lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Lady Bears | 13 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 75 |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 19 | 27 | 14 | 26 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 3:36 swung win probability 69% → 92%.
Why Missouri State Lady Bears lost
- Lost Q2 17-27 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q1 3:36 (win probability 69% → 92% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 16-9.
- Outscored 24-15 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 9–0 | Q1 3:36 | 69% → 92% |