New Mexico State Aggies 51, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 88
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-10 · Winner: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders defeated New Mexico State Aggies 88–51 on 2026-01-10 in NCAA Women's play, a 37-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:41 swung win probability 62% → 86%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why New Mexico State Aggies lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State Aggies | 9 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 51 |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 28 | 21 | 22 | 17 | 88 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:41 swung win probability 62% → 86%.
Why New Mexico State Aggies lost
- Lost Q1 9-28 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 3:11 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 36.6% eFG vs a 43.4% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 8–0 | Q1 5:41 | 62% → 86% |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 9–0 | Q2 3:11 | 99% → 100% |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 9–0 | Q3 4:12 | 100% → 100% |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 8–0 | Q4 9:01 | 100% → 100% |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 8–0 | Q4 5:09 | 100% → 100% |