Toledo Rockets 70, Arkansas State Red Wolves 71
NCAA Men's · 2026-11-02 · Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State Red Wolves defeated Toledo Rockets 71–70 on 2026-11-02 in NCAA Men's play, a 1-point result. A 15-0 home team run ending at H1 11:01 swung win probability 51% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Toledo Rockets lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 35 | 35 | 70 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 36 | 35 | 71 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 15-0 home team run ending at H1 11:01 swung win probability 51% → 94%.
Why Toledo Rockets lost
- Gave up a 15-0 run ending at H1 11:01 (win probability 51% → 94% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 16-10.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 15–0 | H1 11:01 | 51% → 94% |
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | H2 18:52 | 84% → 48% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 8–0 | H2 7:45 | 63% → 98% |
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | H2 4:36 | 98% → 65% |