Cal Poly Mustangs 84, Arizona Wildcats 104
NCAA Men's · 2026-11-05 · Winner: Arizona Wildcats
Arizona Wildcats defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 104–84 on 2026-11-05 in NCAA Men's play, a 20-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 11:13 swung win probability 65% → 91%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 41 | 43 | 84 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 59 | 45 | 104 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 11:13 swung win probability 65% → 91%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost H1 41-59 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at H1 7:04 (win probability 87% → 100% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 19-13.
- Outscored 28-10 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Wildcats | 9–0 | H1 11:13 | 65% → 91% |
| Arizona Wildcats | 13–0 | H1 7:04 | 87% → 100% |
| Arizona Wildcats | 12–0 | H2 7:20 | 100% → 100% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | H2 1:48 | 100% → 100% |