Illinois State Redbirds 61, Dayton Flyers 55
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-25 · Winner: Illinois State Redbirds
Illinois State Redbirds defeated Dayton Flyers 61–55 on 2026-03-25 in NCAA Men's play, a 6-point result. A 12-0 road team run ending at H1 5:54 swung win probability 40% → 5%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Dayton Flyers lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds | 33 | 28 | 61 |
| Dayton Flyers | 23 | 32 | 55 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 road team run ending at H1 5:54 swung win probability 40% → 5%.
Why Dayton Flyers lost
- Lost H1 23-33 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at H1 5:54 (win probability 40% → 5% for the home side).
- Shot 32.5% eFG vs a 51.6% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds | 10–0 | H1 15:40 | 51% → 17% |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 12–0 | H1 5:54 | 40% → 5% |
| Dayton Flyers | 9–0 | H2 19:16 | 4% → 20% |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 9–0 | H2 12:30 | 10% → 0% |
| Dayton Flyers | 14–0 | H2 2:26 | 0% → 3% |