Toledo Rockets 76, Akron Zips 79
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-14 · Winner: Akron Zips
Akron Zips defeated Toledo Rockets 79–76 on 2026-03-14 in NCAA Men's play, a 3-point result. A 15-0 home team run ending at H2 10:30 swung win probability 10% → 85%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Toledo Rockets lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 42 | 34 | 76 |
| Akron Zips | 30 | 49 | 79 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 15-0 home team run ending at H2 10:30 swung win probability 10% → 85%.
Why Toledo Rockets lost
- Lost H2 34-49 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 15-0 run ending at H2 10:30 (win probability 10% → 85% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 14-6.
- Game was within 4 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Zips | 8–0 | H1 7:44 | 17% → 43% |
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | H1 5:26 | 43% → 13% |
| Akron Zips | 15–0 | H2 10:30 | 10% → 85% |
| Toledo Rockets | 8–0 | H2 8:24 | 82% → 26% |