VCU Rams 55, Illinois Fighting Illini 76
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-21 · Winner: Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois Fighting Illini defeated VCU Rams 76–55 on 2026-03-21 in NCAA Men's play, a 21-point result. A 15-0 home team run ending at H2 18:47 swung win probability 50% → 98%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why VCU Rams lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU Rams | 28 | 27 | 55 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 35 | 41 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 15-0 home team run ending at H2 18:47 swung win probability 50% → 98%.
Why VCU Rams lost
- Lost H2 27-41 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 15-0 run ending at H2 18:47 (win probability 50% → 98% for the home side).
- Shot 40.2% eFG vs a 53.6% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 11-2 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 9–0 | H1 15:05 | 62% → 88% |
| VCU Rams | 10–0 | H1 5:02 | 91% → 60% |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 15–0 | H2 18:47 | 50% → 98% |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 9–0 | H2 9:30 | 99% → 100% |