Louisville Cardinals 69, Michigan State Spartans 77
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-21 · Winner: Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans defeated Louisville Cardinals 77–69 on 2026-03-21 in NCAA Men's play, a 8-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 14:24 swung win probability 54% → 84%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisville Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 36 | 41 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 14:24 swung win probability 54% → 84%.
Why Louisville Cardinals lost
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H1 14:24 (win probability 54% → 84% for the home side).
- Shot 51.6% eFG vs a 56.5% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 14-4 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans | 9–0 | H1 14:24 | 54% → 84% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 8–0 | H1 9:46 | 69% → 91% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 8–0 | H2 6:41 | 87% → 100% |