TCU Horned Frogs 58, Duke Blue Devils 81
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-21 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated TCU Horned Frogs 81–58 on 2026-03-21 in NCAA Men's play, a 23-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at H2 11:49 swung win probability 57% → 96%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why TCU Horned Frogs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Horned Frogs | 34 | 24 | 58 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 38 | 43 | 81 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at H2 11:49 swung win probability 57% → 96%.
Why TCU Horned Frogs lost
- Lost H2 24-43 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at H2 5:15 (win probability 93% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 38.4% eFG vs a 50.4% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 20-5 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 9–0 | H2 11:49 | 57% → 96% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 13–0 | H2 5:15 | 93% → 100% |