Utah State Aggies 86, Villanova Wildcats 76
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-20 · Winner: Utah State Aggies
Utah State Aggies defeated Villanova Wildcats 86–76 on 2026-03-20 in NCAA Men's play, a 10-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 2:12 swung win probability 73% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Villanova Wildcats lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State Aggies | 37 | 49 | 86 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 39 | 37 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 2:12 swung win probability 73% → 0%.
Why Villanova Wildcats lost
- Lost H2 37-49 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 2:12 (win probability 73% → 0% for the home side).
- Outscored 28-6 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova Wildcats | 9–0 | H1 5:15 | 30% → 68% |
| Villanova Wildcats | 9–0 | H2 17:53 | 64% → 94% |
| Utah State Aggies | 9–0 | H2 2:12 | 73% → 0% |