Georgia Southern Eagles 80, Arkansas State Red Wolves 77
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-05 · Winner: Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern Eagles defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 80–77 on 2026-03-05 in NCAA Men's play, a 3-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at H2 17:28 swung win probability 18% → 74%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 42 | 38 | 80 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 34 | 43 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at H2 17:28 swung win probability 18% → 74%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Lost H1 34-42 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 15:18 (win probability 78% → 29% for the home side).
- Shot 48.5% eFG vs a 52.6% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 8–0 | H1 7:52 | 57% → 23% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 12–0 | H2 17:28 | 18% → 74% |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 9–0 | H2 15:18 | 78% → 29% |