Mississippi State Bulldogs 61, Auburn Tigers 79
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-11 · Winner: Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers defeated Mississippi State Bulldogs 79–61 on 2026-03-11 in NCAA Men's play, a 18-point result. A 13-0 home team run ending at H2 13:13 swung win probability 47% → 97%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Mississippi State Bulldogs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 33 | 28 | 61 |
| Auburn Tigers | 30 | 49 | 79 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 13-0 home team run ending at H2 13:13 swung win probability 47% → 97%.
Why Mississippi State Bulldogs lost
- Lost H2 28-49 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at H2 13:13 (win probability 47% → 97% for the home side).
- Shot 43.8% eFG vs a 51.5% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 11-7.
- Outscored 14-5 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn Tigers | 8–0 | H2 17:18 | 20% → 58% |
| Auburn Tigers | 13–0 | H2 13:13 | 47% → 97% |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 9–0 | H2 9:25 | 99% → 76% |
| Auburn Tigers | 8–0 | H2 1:59 | 97% → 100% |