Dayton Flyers 70, Saint Louis Billikens 69
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-14 · Winner: Dayton Flyers
Dayton Flyers defeated Saint Louis Billikens 70–69 on 2026-03-14 in NCAA Men's play, a 1-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at H2 3:09 swung win probability 12% → 86%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Saint Louis Billikens lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Flyers | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| Saint Louis Billikens | 36 | 33 | 69 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at H2 3:09 swung win probability 12% → 86%.
Why Saint Louis Billikens lost
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 10:11 (win probability 97% → 70% for the home side).
- Shot 52.9% eFG vs a 59.9% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 18-8.
- Outscored 24-15 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis Billikens | 8–0 | H2 19:07 | 64% → 92% |
| Dayton Flyers | 9–0 | H2 10:11 | 97% → 70% |
| Dayton Flyers | 9–0 | H2 5:09 | 82% → 12% |
| Saint Louis Billikens | 8–0 | H2 3:09 | 12% → 86% |