Belmont Bruins 74, Illinois State Redbirds 81
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-01 · Winner: Illinois State Redbirds
Illinois State Redbirds defeated Belmont Bruins 81–74 on 2026-03-01 in NCAA Men's play, a 7-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at H1 2:55 swung win probability 17% → 55%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Belmont Bruins lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont Bruins | 40 | 34 | 74 |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 38 | 43 | 81 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at H1 2:55 swung win probability 17% → 55%.
Why Belmont Bruins lost
- Lost H2 34-43 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H1 2:55 (win probability 17% → 55% for the home side).
- Outscored 19-9 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds | 10–0 | H1 2:55 | 17% → 55% |