Belmont Bruins 78, Valparaiso Beacons 77
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-28 · Winner: Belmont Bruins
Belmont Bruins defeated Valparaiso Beacons 78–77 on 2026-01-28 in NCAA Men's play, a 1-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at H2 7:53 swung win probability 28% → 83%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Valparaiso Beacons lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont Bruins | 42 | 36 | 78 |
| Valparaiso Beacons | 38 | 39 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at H2 7:53 swung win probability 28% → 83%.
Why Valparaiso Beacons lost
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H1 6:10 (win probability 61% → 19% for the home side).
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont Bruins | 8–0 | H1 12:31 | 58% → 27% |
| Valparaiso Beacons | 9–0 | H1 8:58 | 25% → 61% |
| Belmont Bruins | 10–0 | H1 6:10 | 61% → 19% |
| Valparaiso Beacons | 8–0 | H1 3:46 | 19% → 50% |
| Valparaiso Beacons | 8–0 | H2 7:53 | 28% → 83% |