Montana State Bobcats 83, Cal Poly Mustangs 80
NCAA Men's · 2025-12-16 · Winner: Montana State Bobcats
Montana State Bobcats defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 83–80 on 2025-12-16 in NCAA Men's play, a 3-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at H2 16:33 swung win probability 73% → 31%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State Bobcats | 40 | 43 | 83 |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 41 | 39 | 80 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at H2 16:33 swung win probability 73% → 31%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at H2 7:24 (win probability 42% → 0% for the home side).
- Shot 46.0% eFG vs a 51.9% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State Bobcats | 8–0 | H2 16:33 | 73% → 31% |
| Montana State Bobcats | 12–0 | H2 7:24 | 42% → 0% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 9–0 | H2 1:45 | 0% → 1% |