Grand Canyon Lopes 69, Utah State Aggies 74
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-28 · Winner: Utah State Aggies
Utah State Aggies defeated Grand Canyon Lopes 74–69 on 2026-02-28 in NCAA Men's play, a 5-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at H1 10:45 swung win probability 69% → 97%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Grand Canyon Lopes lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 27 | 42 | 69 |
| Utah State Aggies | 41 | 33 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at H1 10:45 swung win probability 69% → 97%.
Why Grand Canyon Lopes lost
- Lost H1 27-41 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at H1 10:45 (win probability 69% → 97% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 14-6.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State Aggies | 9–0 | H1 16:21 | 55% → 83% |
| Utah State Aggies | 14–0 | H1 10:45 | 69% → 97% |
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 9–0 | H2 14:35 | 98% → 83% |