San Diego State Aztecs 77, Boise State Broncos 86
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-03 · Winner: Boise State Broncos
Boise State Broncos defeated San Diego State Aztecs 86–77 on 2026-03-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 9-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at H1 9:58 swung win probability 72% → 98%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why San Diego State Aztecs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs | 27 | 50 | 77 |
| Boise State Broncos | 34 | 52 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at H1 9:58 swung win probability 72% → 98%.
Why San Diego State Aztecs lost
- Lost H1 27-34 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at H1 9:58 (win probability 72% → 98% for the home side).
- Outscored 26-17 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 12-2.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State Broncos | 14–0 | H1 9:58 | 72% → 98% |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 12–0 | H1 6:20 | 98% → 79% |
| Boise State Broncos | 12–0 | H2 15:22 | 90% → 100% |