Toledo Rockets 69, Michigan State Spartans 92
NCAA Men's · 2025-12-16 · Winner: Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans defeated Toledo Rockets 92–69 on 2025-12-16 in NCAA Men's play, a 23-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 14:37 swung win probability 78% → 95%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Toledo Rockets lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 28 | 41 | 69 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 58 | 34 | 92 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 14:37 swung win probability 78% → 95%.
Why Toledo Rockets lost
- Lost H1 28-58 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H1 0:00 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 43.8% eFG vs a 54.8% season average - a cold night.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 18-6.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans | 9–0 | H1 14:37 | 78% → 95% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 11–0 | H1 0:00 | 100% → 100% |