SMU Mustangs 78, Florida State Seminoles 91
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-07 · Winner: Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles defeated SMU Mustangs 91–78 on 2026-03-07 in NCAA Men's play, a 13-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 4:17 swung win probability 60% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 27 | 51 | 78 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 45 | 46 | 91 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 4:17 swung win probability 60% → 94%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost H1 27-45 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H1 4:17 (win probability 60% → 94% for the home side).
- Shot 51.5% eFG vs a 55.6% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State Seminoles | 11–0 | H1 4:17 | 60% → 94% |
| Florida State Seminoles | 9–0 | H1 2:10 | 88% → 99% |
| Florida State Seminoles | 8–0 | H2 8:34 | 98% → 100% |