North Carolina Tar Heels 61, Duke Blue Devils 76
NCAA Men's · 2026-03-07 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 76–61 on 2026-03-07 in NCAA Men's play, a 15-point result. A 16-0 home team run ending at H2 10:59 swung win probability 74% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why North Carolina Tar Heels lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 34 | 27 | 61 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 39 | 37 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 16-0 home team run ending at H2 10:59 swung win probability 74% → 100%.
Why North Carolina Tar Heels lost
- Lost H2 27-37 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 16-0 run ending at H2 10:59 (win probability 74% → 100% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 14-8.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 18-5.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 9–0 | H1 9:57 | 69% → 93% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | H1 1:49 | 94% → 73% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 16–0 | H2 10:59 | 74% → 100% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 8–0 | H2 6:03 | 100% → 100% |