Virginia Cavaliers 51, Duke Blue Devils 77
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-28 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated Virginia Cavaliers 77–51 on 2026-02-28 in NCAA Men's play, a 26-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 5:48 swung win probability 85% → 98%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Virginia Cavaliers lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 26 | 25 | 51 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 41 | 36 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at H1 5:48 swung win probability 85% → 98%.
Why Virginia Cavaliers lost
- Lost H1 26-41 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H2 4:56 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 35.5% eFG vs a 54.6% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 9–0 | H1 5:48 | 85% → 98% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 11–0 | H2 4:56 | 100% → 100% |