Louisville Cardinals 74, North Carolina Tar Heels 77
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-23 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Louisville Cardinals 77–74 on 2026-02-23 in NCAA Men's play, a 3-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 13:56 swung win probability 62% → 28%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisville Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 38 | 36 | 74 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 39 | 38 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 13:56 swung win probability 62% → 28%.
Why Louisville Cardinals lost
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H2 13:38 (win probability 85% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 49.3% eFG vs a 56.5% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 9–0 | H1 13:56 | 62% → 28% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | H1 10:07 | 24% → 53% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 10–0 | H2 13:38 | 85% → 100% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 9–0 | H2 10:29 | 100% → 92% |