Louisville Cardinals 85, SMU Mustangs 95
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-17 · Winner: SMU Mustangs
SMU Mustangs defeated Louisville Cardinals 95–85 on 2026-02-17 in NCAA Men's play, a 10-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at H1 16:18 swung win probability 44% → 72%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisville Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 49 | 36 | 85 |
| SMU Mustangs | 52 | 43 | 95 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at H1 16:18 swung win probability 44% → 72%.
Why Louisville Cardinals lost
- Lost H2 36-43 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at H1 16:18 (win probability 44% → 72% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 17-10.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 8–0 | H1 16:18 | 44% → 72% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 8–0 | H1 4:49 | 88% → 60% |