NC State Wolfpack 84, SMU Mustangs 83
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-03 · Winner: NC State Wolfpack
NC State Wolfpack defeated SMU Mustangs 84–83 on 2026-02-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 1-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 9:04 swung win probability 80% → 20%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | 34 | 50 | 84 |
| SMU Mustangs | 42 | 41 | 83 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 9:04 swung win probability 80% → 20%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost H2 41-50 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 9:04 (win probability 80% → 20% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 10–0 | H1 2:03 | 72% → 97% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 9–0 | H2 9:04 | 80% → 20% |
| SMU Mustangs | 9–0 | H2 4:08 | 0% → 21% |